The Integration Threshold How Renewed TPLF Dialogue Could Convert Northern Ethiopia from Battlefield to Growth Corridor

Renewed tensions in northern Ethiopia have revived fears that the political settlement created by the November 2022 Pretoria Cessation of Hostilities Agreement could collapse into another cycle of confrontation. Yet recent diplomatic activity signals movement in the opposite direction: a possible reopening of political dialogue between the federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF).